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Daily Market Commentary



Friday, August 24, 2007


The Lowdown on Bottoms

Bottoms print as a result of market physics. Uptrends and downtrends exhibit natural wave motion as they thrust forward, and they pull back to test gains or losses. This action-reaction becomes very important at market turning points. It implies that a reversal pattern will appear at some point in each trend. In an uptrend, a lower high will eventually follow a higher high and mark a new top. In a downtrend, lower lows will finally stop when price action prints a higher low. This marks the birth of a bottom.

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Trading Education Tutorial
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems

Volume Climax




Volume Helps Identify Reversals

Various price patterns can alert us to potential reversal candidates. Trendline Breaks, Support and Resistance Levels, Fibonacci Retracement Levels and other price information are valuable in determining a change in direction for a security. However, one of the most overlooked chart patterns that help us determine reversals is not reflected in the price itself. Volume climaxes are easily identifiable and valuable in assessing a change in market sentiment.


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NASDAQ Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems


REGN has formed a clear inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at the lows of the Summer decline. The neck line (resistance) is clearly defined at 19.00 and makes for a very solid fulcrum in the charts. A break above this level will likely lead to key strength, while a failure will lead to another big round of selling. Watch it closely.


Daily Trading Signals

 


NYSE Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems


NBR has thrown some big reversal tails at the key 27.20 support level, which has held firm since last Fall. If NBR can continue to hold above 27.20, we could see another nice rally toward the Summer highs.


Daily Trading Signals

 


Daily Market Commentary
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems

Updated Thursday, 8/23 for Friday's market.

Key DOW Levels for 8/24

UP

Above 13,500

DN

Below 13,000


Quiet Session...

- Dow opens session with promise, but closes flat for the day. From prior commentary, "...While the Dow has picked up a considerable amount of points along the way, today's upside break through 13,200 does not lend confidence to the bulls...a break back below 13,150 could give us an early sign of weakness..."


The Dow opened the session with a fair bit of strength this morning, but the index quickly reversed course and settled into a very tight range, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index basically traded sideways the entire session and eventually closed flat on the day. The Dow continues to near the highs of the six-day uptrend, but does not look poised to head higher.


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