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Daily Market Commentary



Tuesday, January 30, 2007


 

 

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Technical Indicators

Rate of Change

The Rate of Change is an oscillator that displays the difference between the current price and the price x-time periods ago. As prices increase, the ROC rises and as prices fall, the ROC falls. The greater the change in prices, the greater the change in the ROC.


The 10-day ROC is an excellent short - to intermediate term overbought/oversold indicator. The higher the ROC, the more overbought the security; when the ROC falls expect a rally. As with all overbought/over-sold indicators, watching for the market to start its correction before placing a trade. Often extremely overbought/oversold readings usually imply a continuation of the current trend and any overbought market may remain that way for some time.

 

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Quantum Swing Trader
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Trading Education Tutorial

Moving Averages and the Trend




Moving Averages Help Us Identify Trend Reversals

One of the old axioms of technical analysis is that 'the trend is your friend'. This holds true, as long as you trade in the direction of the trend. However, your 'friend' has two faces, and can turn on you to eliminate profits (and your friendship!). Trend reversals can occur at any time and one of the important skills a trader must possess is the ability to identify a reversal. It is easy to exit a position too early if we over-anticipate a trend reversal, and just as easy to watch our profits evaporate if we are too slow to exit the trade.


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NASDAQ Chart of the Day


FCEL got a solid upside move today through a clear upper trend line at 6.40, which is highly bullish. Look for more strength from this stock.


Daily Trading Signals

 


NYSE Chart of the Day

COT is winding up within the boundaries of a clear triangle pattern that could offer a solid breakout opportunity. Watch 14.75 up, and 13.80 down.


Daily Trading Signals

 


Daily Market Commentary

Updated Monday, 1/29 for Tuesday's market.

Key DOW Levels for 1/30

P

Above 12,550

DN

Below 12,475


Winding Up...

- Dow reverses sharply from yesterday's highs, drops steadily throughout the day. The index eventually sold off from the session's highs and ended the day within a large triangle range, as it awaits a potential breakout move.


- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded back and forth throughout the day, with the NASDAQ hold key lows to the Close. Watch the tech-heavy index closely, as a breakout from the current consolidation range could offer nice direction.

Summary

The Dow ended the day with a mild 4 point gain, but is clearly winding up within a very large triangle pattern. A breakout from this pattern could spark a move about the size of 190 points, which could offer a move of the same magnitude.


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