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Daily Market Commentary



Wednesday, September 20, 2006


Trading Ideas & Picks

CRE - Coming Out of Channel

 

CRE: Tight lower channels such as this one are common in this market and here we see this stock starting to come out of channel now. Buy point is when the stock moves over the line...


Trading Ideas - Read More

 


Trading Ideas & Picks

SNDK - Could Use a Rest

 

SNDK: This stock could use a rest after a 50% move off its lows, but if the market wishes, this stock just might be on the move again. Next buy point is when the stock makes a move above the trendline at $60...


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Trading Tools

Shogun Swing Trading - Best Swing Trading:


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NASDAQ Chart of the Day


 

SAPE has formed a great saucer pattern and could really get a huge breakout move from this pattern. Watch the lip of the saucer at 5.50 for a potential upside break that could send the stock back toward the 8.00 zone.


Daily Trading Signals

 


NYSE Chart of the Day




EDS has formed a large triangle consolidation at the current lows and looks poised for a solid breakout. Watch 24.75 up, and 23.70 down for the potential breakout move.


Daily Trading Signals

 

Technical Indicators

On Balance Volume (OBV)


On Balance Volume (OBV) is a momentum indicator that relates volume to price change. Joseph Granville presented the idea that volume will precede price in his 1963 book, New Key to Stock Market Profits.

On Balance Volume keeps a running total of volume flowing into or out of a security. When the security closes higher than the previous close, all of the day's volume is considered up-volume. A close lower than the previous day's results in all of the day's volume considered down-volume. A rising OBV is defined as a sign of smart money flowing into a security. As the public then moves into the security, both the security and the OBV will surge ahead. If price movement precedes OBV movement, Granville calls this a "non-confirmation." Non-confirmations can occur at bull market tops, when the security rises before/without the OBV or at bear market bottoms when the security falls before/without the OBV...

 

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Daily Market Commentary

Updated Tuesday, 9/19 for Wednesday's market


Key DOW Levels for 9/20

UP

Above 11,625

DN

Below 11,470


V-Bottom Reversal

- Dow sells off heavily to begin session, but gets key reversal to rally to the Close. The index dropped back to the 11,480 zone, but got a highly bullish v-bottom reversal that sent the index back to 11,550, essentially ending the day with a 14 point loss.


- The NASDAQ and S&P each reversed sharply from early lows, but continue to look vulnerable to potential selling ahead. Continue to watch near-term support for broader direction.


Summary

The Dow ended the day with a nice reversal from lows, but continues to be vulnerable to a potential downside break through the major lower trend line. Continue to watch 11,470 for major selling pressure; while keeping an eye on 11,600 for another shot at new highs.


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Trading Education Tutorial

Support and Resistance Levels




History Tells Us When Securites are Overbought or Oversold

Support indicates a level on the chart where we can expect an increase in the demand for a security (buyers take over). How do we know this? By identifying this reaction to this price level in the chart's history.


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