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2006 :
IX
X
XI
XII
2007 :
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
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So how does a new trader begin to understand the basics of the current market trend? First, try with these few basic guidelines that hold true at any experience level. Moving averages are always a good guide to use to help you establish the current trend. Are the 20 and 40 rising or falling? Are we above or below the 200? Is the 20 above the 40? Is the 40 above the 200? Are we in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows or are they starting to even off showing the potential for a base to form?
Many traders like to be market "gurus" and nail every twist and turn in the market. But a wiser choice is to follow a plan, play proven strategies, and always keep a close eye on what the market has done to help you determine your best course of action in the future.
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The Big W
Double Bottoms provide visual reference points that map the entire reversal process. Once located, these signposts identify most key price pivots and flash early warning signals when violated. The most common of these, The Big W, begins at the last major high printed by a downtrending stock, just prior to the first bottom. The first bounce after this low creates the center of the W as it retraces between 38% and 62% of that last downward move.
This rally fades and price descends back toward a test of the last bottom low. At this moment the trader listens closely for the first bell to ring. A wide range reversal bar (doji or hammer) may appear close to the low price of the last bottom. Or volume spikes sharply but price does not fail. Better yet, a Turtle Reversal develops where price violates the last low by a few ticks and then prints a sharp move back above support. Should any or all of these events occur, we mark the potential second leg on our Big W.
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